Gas storage at 15-year low puts wood-heat stocks in play, EERP says

MADRID, 15 October 2026. Europe will turn back to wood for heat this winter as it enters the season with the thinnest gas buffer in 15 years, and the listed stove makers and wood-fuel suppliers that rose 44% to 106% in the 2022 crisis trade below those highs, according to a thematic report published on Thursday by European Equity Research Partners (EERP).

The report, "Back to the woodpile", calls a cyclical window in the building products and home heating sector. In 2022 the stocks moved within weeks of the gas shock, ahead of any change in order books, and gave the gains back inside two years once storage refilled and gas prices fell.

EERP is an independent equity research firm covering listed companies across Europe, the Middle East and Central Asia. The report draws on 15 years of EU storage data, Eurostat heating statistics, delivered-heat costs in the UK, Germany and France, and a screen of more than 100 listed companies.

EU gas storage was 73.8% full on 11 October against a 90% target, the lowest level for the date since 2011. Germany, the largest market for wood stoves and pellets, stood at 57%.

The cause is the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to LNG shipments, which Shell estimates has removed 36 million tonnes a year of Qatari and UAE supply. Asian spot LNG has nearly tripled to about $30/MMBtu.

Wood is already a core heating fuel in Europe. Eurostat data show it provides 24% of household space heating in France, 27% in Italy, 32% in Poland and 54% in Romania.

The report identifies energy security as the swing factor in that demand. It drove the spikes of 2005 to 2006 and 2022, when buyers bought stoves as a backup in case gas ran out.

The 2022 cycle shows the scale. French log-stove sales peaked at about 512,000 units, UK stove sales rose 40% and Tulikivi's order book nearly tripled.

In the market, Tulikivi (TULAV: HE) rose 106% at its best close in the year after Russia invaded Ukraine, Cogra 48 (ALCOG: PA) 85%, Poujoulat (ALPJT: PA) 77%, NIBE (NIBE B: ST) and the French pellet maker EO2 (ALEO2: PA) 63% and the French forestry group Moulinvest (ALMOU: PA) 44%, against 2.5% for the STOXX Europe 600. By 25 September 2026 all but Tulikivi traded below their pre-invasion prices while the index was 41% higher.

The economics now favour a repeat. On the cost of delivered heat, wood beats heating oil and direct electric heating in most markets, beats gas clearly in France and Germany, and reaches break-even in the UK once the January cap passes 9.66p per kWh, against a forecast of 9.76p.

"Energy security, not price, is what sends European households to wood, and the market prices that shift within weeks," said Simon Powell, EERP's Head of Research. "The 2022 cycle gave everything back inside two years, so this is a cyclical opportunity with a defined window, and the window opens with the heating season."

Poujoulat, a chimney and wood-fuel group from Saint-Symphorien in western France listed on Euronext Growth Paris, carries the best mix of leverage and evidence. Wood energy is nearly half of its sales, the Coirier family controls 66.87%, and the stock trades at about 0.12 times sales.

Cogra 48, a pellet producer from Mende in the Lozère, also on Euronext Growth Paris, grew 24% in the year to June 2026. Tulikivi, the soapstone fireplace maker from Juuka in eastern Finland listed on Nasdaq Helsinki, is the only listed pure play in wood fireplaces and the only name still above its pre-invasion price.

NIBE Industrier of Markaryd, Sweden, listed on Nasdaq Stockholm with a market value of about €7.9 billion, is the liquid, large-cap route. It owns about fifteen stove brands, although stoves are 8.5% of its sales and heat pumps the larger part.

The report also sets out where it could be wrong: a reopening of Hormuz, German pellet prices already up 36% in a year, the UK cap holding gas prices down, particulate regulation, and thin trading in the smaller names.

"Back to the woodpile" is non-sponsored research produced at EERP's own initiative and is open to the public at europeanequityresearch.com.

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Its author is Simon Powell, EERP's Head of Research, former global head of thematic research at Jefferies and head of utilities research at UBS and CLSA Asia-Pacific, where he was ranked top of the Asiamoney analyst survey.

European Equity Research Partners S.L. (EERP) is incorporated in Spain and operates under the applicable regulatory framework of the European Union. Its principal is Jason Paltrowitz, former Executive Vice President of OTC Markets Group in New York. The firm provides fully disclosed issuer-sponsored research to listed companies across Europe, the Middle East and Central Asia.

EERP's fees are not linked to ratings or price targets, and issuers do not approve its opinions before publication. The firm publishes its research openly and does not provide investment advice or investment services.